Oscar Predictions 2011

27 02 2011

Today’s the day! The 83rd Academy Awards are tonight! It’s been a pretty rigorous awards season, and the list of nominees in all categories represent an impressive collection of talent. Below are my predictions for the night, as well as some comments on upsets/snubs/hopes. Make sure to click any of the links below for complete film reviews! I never got around to writing my reviews for The Kids Are All Right and The Town, but suffice it to say, both films were exceptional and are well-deserving of their nominations. I was actually able to see all the Best Picture nominees except Winter’s Bone (the DVD of which is currently sitting on my TV), so I’m very excited about this year’s ceremony!

(I did not include the categories Foreign Language Feature, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Animated Short Film and Live Action Short Film, as I have not seen any of the nominees. For a complete list of nominees, go to the official Oscar website.)

* Who I Think Will Win

√ Who I Think Should Win

BEST PICTURE:

From the beginning, this has been a contest between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Early in the awards race, The Social Network seemed to have the upper-hand; however, as Oscar night draws near, The King’s Speech has become the clear front-runner. While I’d love to see The King’s Speech win over The Social Network, the best film of the year was Inception.

DIRECTING:

It’s an absolute travesty that Christopher Nolan and Danny Boyle were not nominated in this category for Inception and 127 Hours, respectively. Both directors are at the top of my list, so I’m going to abstain from even saying who I think should win in this category, because it should be Danny Boyle (√) – and he’s not even nominated. Tom Hooper will probably snag the trophy, since his film will likely get Best Picture, but David Fincher has a chance for an upset.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Not really even a question.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

  • Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
  • Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
  • Natalie Portman (Black Swan) * √
  • Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Natalie has had this locked from the beginning.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

  • Christian Bale (The Fighter) * √
  • John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
  • Jeremy Renner (The Town)
  • Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
  • Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

This one’s tough. Geoffrey Rush was amazing; unfortunately for him, Christian Bale was more amazing. It always happens with Best Supporting Actor: last year it was Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) – both amazing, but Waltz was more amazing.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Melissa Leo is the clear front-runner, but Amy Adams could giver her a run for her money; except, if the award doesn’t go to Leo, the Academy will likely ignore The Fighter altogether and give the statue to Hailee Steinfeld, who really should have been nominated in the Best Actress category.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

  • 127 Hours (Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy)
  • The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin) *
  • Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
  • True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen) √
  • Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini)

As a writer, this one hurts my heart: True Grit and The Social Network were pieces of pure linguistic genius. But, only one can win. Sorkin’s got this one, but I can’t help but be amazed at the truly poetic work of the Coen Brothers.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

  • Another Year (Mike Leigh)
  • The Fighter (Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson)
  • Inception (Christopher Nolan) √
  • The Kids Are All Right (Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg)
  • The King’s Speech (David Seidler) *

Inception should take this one. As a close second, The Kids Are All Right would be acceptable. Alas, The King’s Speech is sure to sweep most of its categories.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

I still cannot quite figure out the fascination with Toy Story 3. It’s nominated for Best Picture, so this one is a no-brainer, which is sad, because How to Train Your Dragon deserves this one.

ART DIRECTION:

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Black Swan was able to put the audience onto the dance floor in a truly hypnotizing and deft way; it deserves this award. But any category with The Social Network and The King’s Speech leaves room for upset.

COSTUME DESIGN:

The Academy could never ignore a wonderfully cut, World Wars II-era suit.

FILM EDITING:

Once again, The Social Network and The King’s Speech are going to be vying for most of these awards; however, 127 Hours was masterfully edited, especially during “the scene.” It deserves this, if for no other reason than to atone for the lack of a Boyle nomination.

MAKEUP:

Creature makeup for the win.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Reznor’s score is one of the best movie scores in recent memory. It’s enough to beat out Zimmer’s oft-parodied “BWWWAAAHHH” from Inception; however, Desplat’s haunting score could be the dark horse.

ORIGINAL SONG:

For whatever reason, the Academy tends to like country; but Tangled‘s “I See The Light” was so imbued with Disney magic, it’s number one on my list.

SOUND MIXING:

One word: BWWWAAAHHHH!

SOUND EDITING:

To be honest, I don’t see much difference between the sound awards, so, see above.

VISUAL EFFECTS:

If you’re not gonna give it Best Picture, at least give it as many awards as you can.

So there you have it, my predictions for this year’s Oscars. Check back after the show and see how well I guessed! What do you think? Were any of your favorite films snubbed? Post your predictions in the comments!


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